Dr Davide Natalini

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Senior Research Fellow
Faculty:
Faculty of Science and Engineering
Location:
Cambridge
Areas of Expertise:
Global Risk and Resilience
Research Supervision:
Yes

Dr Davide Natalini is Davide is an interdisciplinary environmental social scientist and is Course Director for the MSc Sustainability at Anglia Ruskin University (run with the Eden Project). His work focuses on exploring complex social-ecological systems by applying systems-based methods, participatory approaches, and quantitative modelling. Davide has led and contributed to major research projects on food security, environmental conflict, and nature-based integration, collaborating with international organisations and UK government departments.

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Background

Davide joined ARU’s Global Sustainability Institute in 2013 as a PhD researcher on the Global Resource Observatory, developing an agent based model to explore how resource scarcity, price volatility and political fragility can contribute to food and fuel riots. This early work combined quantitative modelling with systems thinking and informed discussions with UK government partners and subsequent major projects such as The Global Chaos Map project, which he co-led.

Since then, Davide has established a distinctive interdisciplinary profile at the nexus of environmental security, complex social ecological systems, community resilience, and policy engagement, leading and contributing to a number of externally-funded research projects. His research has been cited in reports by the IMF, UN, World Bank, ILO, IPCC and EU Joint Research Centre, and has informed UK Ministry of Defence strategic publications.

He has extensive experience in participatory and community engaged research, leading knowledge exchange work packages in projects funded by the Nuffield Foundation and British Academy. His work regularly brings together policymakers, local authorities, community organisations and vulnerable groups through workshops, arts based methods, and serious games. Davide also contributes to interdisciplinary initiatives bridging sustainability and the arts, including collaborations with the Cambridge School of Art, creative workshops, public exhibitions, and participation in festivals such as Pint of Science.

Spoken Languages

Italian, English, Spanish

Research interests

Davide’s research is structured around three interconnected streams that explore how societies navigate environmental, social and economic pressures:

  1. Complex Social‑Ecological Systems - Davide studies the dynamic relationships between people and nature, focusing on systemic risk, tipping points and cross‑scale interactions. His work uses mixed methods, including agent‑based modelling, systems thinking and quantitative analysis to understand how shocks propagate across global food, energy and environmental systems, and how synchronous failures can contribute to instability.
  2. Communities’ Resilience & Development - This stream examines how communities respond to environmental and social pressures, such as resource scarcity, climate‑related disruptions and community development. Davide implements participatory and co‑production approaches to understand lived experiences, strengthen local resilience and support community‑led development.
  3. Energy Transitions - Davide explores the pathways, models and policies needed for equitable and realistic energy transitions. His research includes cross‑validation of large-scale energy‑economy‑environment models, scenario analysis for decarbonisation strategies, and the study of behavioural dynamics and policy instruments such as carbon pricing and clean‑energy roadmaps. He collaborates widely across interdisciplinary teams to assess risks, opportunities and social implications of transition pathways.
Areas of research supervision

Davide supervises postgraduate researchers using both quantitative and qualitative approaches, and welcomes dissertations on:

  • Environmental and climate security - How scarcity, extreme events or resource shocks affect conflict, migration, or fragility.
  • Complex Social Ecological Systems - Projects examining interactions between people and nature, multi scale system dynamics, or participatory approaches to resilience.

Additional areas he is happy to supervise include:

  • Participatory modelling and co production
  • Resource-related conflict and protest dynamics
  • Energy transitions and sustainability pathways
  • Community resilience, integration and nature based solutions
Teaching

Davide is Course Director of our MSc Sustainability run in collaboration with the Eden Project, drawing on extensive experience in systems thinking, resilience and community engaged research. He has led several core modules, including Introduction to Sustainability and Systems, Leading System Change, Methods and Tools for Complex Systems and Working Towards Change and supervises MSc dissertations each year. His teaching is grounded in active learning and creativity, frequently integrating participatory tools, and real world case studies.

Qualifications
  • PhD in Sustainability - Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, UK
  • MA in Political Science – Environmental Economics and Environmental Policies, University of Torino, Italy
  • BA in Political Science – International Relations, University of Bologna, Italy
Memberships, editorial boards
  • Environmental Research: Energy (IOP Publishing) – Member of the Editorial Board.
  • Systems (MDPI) – Member of the Editorial Board.
  • Socio‑Environmental Systems Modelling (SESMO) – Member of the Editorial Board.
  • Review of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (RofASSS) – Member of the Editorial Board.
Research grants, consultancy, knowledge exchange
Selected recent publications

Kopacheva, E., Bravo, G., and Natalini, D. 2026. Empirical evidence of direct and indirect relations between environmental pressure and conflict. Conflict, Security & Development, 26(1), 89–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/14678802.2026.2625718

Fatehrad, A., Natalini, D., Yohannes, H.T. and Palombo, G., 2025. The role of nature in migrant integration: An eco-social perspective. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 111, p.128837. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2025.128837

McCulloch, N., Natalini, D., Hossain, N. and Justino, P., 2022. An exploration of the association between fuel subsidies and fuel riots. World Development, 157, p.105935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105935

Natalini, D., Bravo, G. and Newman, E., 2020. Fuel riots: Definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict. Energy Policy, 147, p.111885. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111885

Solé, J., Samsó, R., García-Ladona, E., García-Olivares, A., Ballabrera-Poy, J., Madurell, T., Turiel, A., Osychenko, O., Álvarez, D., Bardi, U., […], Natalini, D., et al., 2020. Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 132, p.110105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105

Lippe, M., Bithell, M., Gotts, N., Natalini, D., Barbrook-Johnson, P., Giupponi, C., Hallier, M., Hofstede, G.J., Le Page, C., Matthews, R.B. and Schlüter, M., 2019. Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales. Geoinformatica, 23(2), pp 269–298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10707-018-00337-8

Natalini, D., Bravo, G. and Jones, A.W., 2019. Global food security and food riots–an agent-based modelling approach. Food Security, 11(5), pp.1153-1173. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0693-z

Natalini, D., Jones, A.W. and Bravo, G. 2015. Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries. Sustainability, 7, 4360-4385. http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/4/4360