BAFR-UK aims to identify interventions in the food system to make it less vulnerable to external shocks over the long term. Backcasting means working backwards from shock and collapse scenarios to produce policy solutions for resilience.
The project is being led by experts from ARU's Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) and has received £2,048,461 in funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). The funding is from the UKRI Strategic Theme on Building a Secure and Resilient World (BSRW).
The UK’s food system is currently optimised for efficiency rather than resilience, relying heavily on imports, seasonal labour, and just-in-time supply chains. This makes it particularly susceptible to disruptions that could lead to a collapse, defined as a situation where the public lack access to affordable food, resulting in economic productivity losses, disease outbreaks, extreme hunger, malnutrition, or civil unrest.
Potential causes of such a collapse include geopolitical instability and conflict around the world; pandemics; extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change; biodiversity loss and environmental degradation; changes to trade tariffs; and cyber-terrorism.
The project aims to identify ways of mitigating the potential tipping points that could lead to a collapse and prioritise the areas within the UK food system that urgently need to strengthen their resilience to likely risks and shocks.
To achieve these goals, we will work closely with key stakeholders and their representatives, including farmers, food producers, importers, distributers, retailers, citizens and NGOs. The project will build on stakeholders’ knowledge to deliver a transformation towards resilience.
ARU is leading the project in partnership with experts from the University of York, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the University of the West of England and the Royal Agricultural University. Other core external partners include WTW, the Food Farming & Countryside Commission (FFCC), the Food Ethics Council (FEC), WRAP, Sustain, Better Food Traders, and WWF. All partners have given in-kind support.
Our advisory board consists of our core external partners as well as Defra, Trussell, Samworth Brothers, the Food Standards Agency (FSA), the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), the Met Office and the AFN Network+.
The BAFR-UK Project is a major investment into understanding how future shocks could significantly impact the UK food system and how we can build resilience to these – especially through policy.
